1fsw. Hurricane KatrinaAt the end of August 2005 we witnessed one of
the major natural catastrophes in American history: Hurricane Katrina.
Katrina was the first of three Category 5 hurricanes to form in the Gulf
of Mexico or the Caribbean in 2005, bringing with it substantial
flooding in southern Florida, the inundation of New Orleans, and a
devastating storm surge in coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Two months later, the storm's death toll was complete: More than 1300
people had perished in the United States, Damage estimates exceeded $100
billion. In this section we present a chronology of what happened
meteorologically.Wednesday, August 24,2005: Tropical Storm East of South
FloridaAt 11 P.M. EDT, Tropical Storm Katrina was located to the east
of south Florida. Figure 12-4-1a shows the location of the storm, as
well as the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) predictions for
future movements and status. Hurricane warnings had recently been issued
for the southeast Florida coastline, with anticipated landfall near
Miami. The storm was forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane by 8 P.M. the
following day very near the shoreline. Though the cone depicted a
fairly extensive range of possible positions, the forecast models the
center used were in close agreement, and the storm moved much as
predicted over the shortterm.Thursday, August 25, 2005: Hurricane
Katrina LandfallAt 5 P.M. EDT on August 25 (Figure 12-4-1b), Katrina had
developed into a hurricane and was near landfall at the position
forecast the night before (though it had moved somewhat faster than
expected). Landfall occurred at about 6:30 P.M. near the
Broward/Miami-Dade County state line (Figure 12-4-2). At this point,
forecasters officially called for the cydone to move directly westward
and, upon entering the Gulf Coast the following afternoon, to turn
toward the northwest and follow a track somewhere in the eastern Gulf
along the west coast of Florida.The hurricane moved rapidly across the
state, which reduced the amount of weakening normally undertaken as a
hurricane passes over land. So even though Katrina traveled across
southern Florida mainly as a tropical storm, it was able to reintensify
into a hurricane when it reached the Gulf.Katrina did considerable
damage to Florida mainly due to heavy rain that exceeded 26 cm (10 in.)
in places. The heavy rainfall led to major flooding and trees toppled by
the combination of saturated soils and strong winds. Six people died in
Florida from Katrina, which also caused $100 million in damages and
$423 million in agricultural losses.Friday, August 26,2005: In the
Eastern Gulf of MexicoShortly after midnight, Katrina entered the Gulf
of Mexico. Early morning forecasts called for the storm to initially
move to the west and then begin to arc northwestward toward the coast
anywhere from the Florida panhandle to extreme eastern Louisiana (Figure
12-4-1c). But by late evening, the system had moved farther to the
southwest than anticipated, and by 11 P.M. a very different track was
predicted—one that would put Katrina on a collision course with New
Orleans and the Mississippi coast (Figure 12-4-1d), The hurricane was
now set to pass over a region of very warm Gulf waters, which the NHC
described as“... like adding high octane fuel to the fire.” All the
forecast models predicted further intensification of Katrina, one of
them calculating that wind speeds would top out at more than 243
km/hr(151 mph)—a strong Category 4.Saturday, August 27, 2005: On
CourseBy Saturday night (Figure 12-4-1e) the previous day’s forecasts
had proven very accurate, and there was little change in the expected
path of the storm. The NHC issued a hurricane warning that included some
of the following text:...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA
MENACING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARDTO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES FROM THE CENTER ... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 205 MILES.COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH URGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL
OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST.The most vulnerable city in the United States, New Orleans,
Louisiana, was about to be hit by a catastrophic storm. Bounded by Lake
Pontchartrain to the north and surrounded by the winding Mississippi
River, the city—much of which is below sea level—had long been known to
be extremely vulnerable. The levees protecting much of the city were
believed to be able to withstand a direct hit from a Category 3
hurricane, but they had never been seriously tested, as they would be
soon. Meanwhile, coastal Mississippi and Alabama were lined up on the
right-hand side of an enormously powerful hurricane track.Sunday, August
28, 2005: Landfall ImminentBy late Sunday night the hurricane was just
offshore (Figure 12-4-1f). Those who had set out to evacuate were long
gone. Those unable to leave were directed to shelters or hunkered down
to take their chances at home. That morning, winds had easily exceeded
the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 282
km/hr (175 mph). The hurricane had become as intense as Hurricane
Camille, which devastated coastal Mississippi in 1969, and was even
larger (Figure 12-4-3). Katrina’s minimum air pressure of 902 mb was the
fourth lowest ever observed for an Atlantic storm up to that
time.FIGURE 12-4-1 Katrina Forecasts and Actual Positions. Maps (a)
through (f) represent a four-day sequence from August 24 to August 28.
The position and forecasted movements of Hurricane Katrina at various
timss The area in white shows the range of possible locations forecast
by the National Hurricane Center at the times shown....FIGURE 12-4-3
Katrina Approaches the Louisiana Coast. Radar image of Hurricane Katrina
as it approached the Louisiana coast. This is shown as a movie in the
book’s online resources....FIGURE 12-4-2 Katrina Approaches Miami. Radar
image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached Miami. This is shown as a
movie in the book’s online resources....Monday, August 29, 2005:
LandfallHurricane Katrina made landfall early Monday morning. Coastal
Louisiana was battered first as a huge storm surge overtook the area.
Though the storm had weakened enough to be a strong Category 4,
everybody knew that a historic disaster was occurring. The eye tracked
just to the northeast of New Orleans, putting the city on the
less-threatening “left side” of the storm. This initially gave the false
impression that the city had narrowly escaped a disaster. This, of
course, proved entirely incorrect. As New Orleans was subjected to wind
speeds on the order of 160 km/hr (100 mph), Lake Pontchartrain waters
rose along the levees, which were unable to hold them back. Eighty
percent of the city came underwater (Figure 12-4-4).In addition to the
flooding in and near New Orleans, a huge storm surge and heavy winds
devastated much of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, helping to make
Katrina one of the major natural disasters in U.S. history.FIGURE 12-4-4
Katrina. Downtown New Orleans under water....How would you assess the
quality of the forecasts leading up to Katrina's landfall over Louisiana
and Mississippi? Get solution
2fsw. Hurricane KatrinaAt the end of August 2005 we witnessed one of the major natural catastrophes in American history: Hurricane Katrina. Katrina was the first of three Category 5 hurricanes to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean in 2005, bringing with it substantial flooding in southern Florida, the inundation of New Orleans, and a devastating storm surge in coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Two months later, the storm's death toll was complete: More than 1300 people had perished in the United States, Damage estimates exceeded $100 billion. In this section we present a chronology of what happened meteorologically.Wednesday, August 24,2005: Tropical Storm East of South FloridaAt 11 P.M. EDT, Tropical Storm Katrina was located to the east of south Florida. Figure 12-4-1a shows the location of the storm, as well as the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) predictions for future movements and status. Hurricane warnings had recently been issued for the southeast Florida coastline, with anticipated landfall near Miami. The storm was forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane by 8 P.M. the following day very near the shoreline. Though the cone depicted a fairly extensive range of possible positions, the forecast models the center used were in close agreement, and the storm moved much as predicted over the shortterm.Thursday, August 25, 2005: Hurricane Katrina LandfallAt 5 P.M. EDT on August 25 (Figure 12-4-1b), Katrina had developed into a hurricane and was near landfall at the position forecast the night before (though it had moved somewhat faster than expected). Landfall occurred at about 6:30 P.M. near the Broward/Miami-Dade County state line (Figure 12-4-2). At this point, forecasters officially called for the cydone to move directly westward and, upon entering the Gulf Coast the following afternoon, to turn toward the northwest and follow a track somewhere in the eastern Gulf along the west coast of Florida.The hurricane moved rapidly across the state, which reduced the amount of weakening normally undertaken as a hurricane passes over land. So even though Katrina traveled across southern Florida mainly as a tropical storm, it was able to reintensify into a hurricane when it reached the Gulf.Katrina did considerable damage to Florida mainly due to heavy rain that exceeded 26 cm (10 in.) in places. The heavy rainfall led to major flooding and trees toppled by the combination of saturated soils and strong winds. Six people died in Florida from Katrina, which also caused $100 million in damages and $423 million in agricultural losses.Friday, August 26,2005: In the Eastern Gulf of MexicoShortly after midnight, Katrina entered the Gulf of Mexico. Early morning forecasts called for the storm to initially move to the west and then begin to arc northwestward toward the coast anywhere from the Florida panhandle to extreme eastern Louisiana (Figure 12-4-1c). But by late evening, the system had moved farther to the southwest than anticipated, and by 11 P.M. a very different track was predicted—one that would put Katrina on a collision course with New Orleans and the Mississippi coast (Figure 12-4-1d), The hurricane was now set to pass over a region of very warm Gulf waters, which the NHC described as“... like adding high octane fuel to the fire.” All the forecast models predicted further intensification of Katrina, one of them calculating that wind speeds would top out at more than 243 km/hr(151 mph)—a strong Category 4.Saturday, August 27, 2005: On CourseBy Saturday night (Figure 12-4-1e) the previous day’s forecasts had proven very accurate, and there was little change in the expected path of the storm. The NHC issued a hurricane warning that included some of the following text:...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA MENACING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARDTO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER ... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH URGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.The most vulnerable city in the United States, New Orleans, Louisiana, was about to be hit by a catastrophic storm. Bounded by Lake Pontchartrain to the north and surrounded by the winding Mississippi River, the city—much of which is below sea level—had long been known to be extremely vulnerable. The levees protecting much of the city were believed to be able to withstand a direct hit from a Category 3 hurricane, but they had never been seriously tested, as they would be soon. Meanwhile, coastal Mississippi and Alabama were lined up on the right-hand side of an enormously powerful hurricane track.Sunday, August 28, 2005: Landfall ImminentBy late Sunday night the hurricane was just offshore (Figure 12-4-1f). Those who had set out to evacuate were long gone. Those unable to leave were directed to shelters or hunkered down to take their chances at home. That morning, winds had easily exceeded the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 282 km/hr (175 mph). The hurricane had become as intense as Hurricane Camille, which devastated coastal Mississippi in 1969, and was even larger (Figure 12-4-3). Katrina’s minimum air pressure of 902 mb was the fourth lowest ever observed for an Atlantic storm up to that time.FIGURE 12-4-1 Katrina Forecasts and Actual Positions. Maps (a) through (f) represent a four-day sequence from August 24 to August 28. The position and forecasted movements of Hurricane Katrina at various timss The area in white shows the range of possible locations forecast by the National Hurricane Center at the times shown....FIGURE 12-4-3 Katrina Approaches the Louisiana Coast. Radar image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached the Louisiana coast. This is shown as a movie in the book’s online resources....FIGURE 12-4-2 Katrina Approaches Miami. Radar image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached Miami. This is shown as a movie in the book’s online resources....Monday, August 29, 2005: LandfallHurricane Katrina made landfall early Monday morning. Coastal Louisiana was battered first as a huge storm surge overtook the area. Though the storm had weakened enough to be a strong Category 4, everybody knew that a historic disaster was occurring. The eye tracked just to the northeast of New Orleans, putting the city on the less-threatening “left side” of the storm. This initially gave the false impression that the city had narrowly escaped a disaster. This, of course, proved entirely incorrect. As New Orleans was subjected to wind speeds on the order of 160 km/hr (100 mph), Lake Pontchartrain waters rose along the levees, which were unable to hold them back. Eighty percent of the city came underwater (Figure 12-4-4).In addition to the flooding in and near New Orleans, a huge storm surge and heavy winds devastated much of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, helping to make Katrina one of the major natural disasters in U.S. history.FIGURE 12-4-4 Katrina. Downtown New Orleans under water....Why was flooding so severe in New Orleans despite the fact that the right side of the storm made landfall east of the city? Get solution
2fsw. Hurricane KatrinaAt the end of August 2005 we witnessed one of the major natural catastrophes in American history: Hurricane Katrina. Katrina was the first of three Category 5 hurricanes to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean in 2005, bringing with it substantial flooding in southern Florida, the inundation of New Orleans, and a devastating storm surge in coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Two months later, the storm's death toll was complete: More than 1300 people had perished in the United States, Damage estimates exceeded $100 billion. In this section we present a chronology of what happened meteorologically.Wednesday, August 24,2005: Tropical Storm East of South FloridaAt 11 P.M. EDT, Tropical Storm Katrina was located to the east of south Florida. Figure 12-4-1a shows the location of the storm, as well as the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) predictions for future movements and status. Hurricane warnings had recently been issued for the southeast Florida coastline, with anticipated landfall near Miami. The storm was forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane by 8 P.M. the following day very near the shoreline. Though the cone depicted a fairly extensive range of possible positions, the forecast models the center used were in close agreement, and the storm moved much as predicted over the shortterm.Thursday, August 25, 2005: Hurricane Katrina LandfallAt 5 P.M. EDT on August 25 (Figure 12-4-1b), Katrina had developed into a hurricane and was near landfall at the position forecast the night before (though it had moved somewhat faster than expected). Landfall occurred at about 6:30 P.M. near the Broward/Miami-Dade County state line (Figure 12-4-2). At this point, forecasters officially called for the cydone to move directly westward and, upon entering the Gulf Coast the following afternoon, to turn toward the northwest and follow a track somewhere in the eastern Gulf along the west coast of Florida.The hurricane moved rapidly across the state, which reduced the amount of weakening normally undertaken as a hurricane passes over land. So even though Katrina traveled across southern Florida mainly as a tropical storm, it was able to reintensify into a hurricane when it reached the Gulf.Katrina did considerable damage to Florida mainly due to heavy rain that exceeded 26 cm (10 in.) in places. The heavy rainfall led to major flooding and trees toppled by the combination of saturated soils and strong winds. Six people died in Florida from Katrina, which also caused $100 million in damages and $423 million in agricultural losses.Friday, August 26,2005: In the Eastern Gulf of MexicoShortly after midnight, Katrina entered the Gulf of Mexico. Early morning forecasts called for the storm to initially move to the west and then begin to arc northwestward toward the coast anywhere from the Florida panhandle to extreme eastern Louisiana (Figure 12-4-1c). But by late evening, the system had moved farther to the southwest than anticipated, and by 11 P.M. a very different track was predicted—one that would put Katrina on a collision course with New Orleans and the Mississippi coast (Figure 12-4-1d), The hurricane was now set to pass over a region of very warm Gulf waters, which the NHC described as“... like adding high octane fuel to the fire.” All the forecast models predicted further intensification of Katrina, one of them calculating that wind speeds would top out at more than 243 km/hr(151 mph)—a strong Category 4.Saturday, August 27, 2005: On CourseBy Saturday night (Figure 12-4-1e) the previous day’s forecasts had proven very accurate, and there was little change in the expected path of the storm. The NHC issued a hurricane warning that included some of the following text:...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA MENACING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARDTO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER ... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH URGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.The most vulnerable city in the United States, New Orleans, Louisiana, was about to be hit by a catastrophic storm. Bounded by Lake Pontchartrain to the north and surrounded by the winding Mississippi River, the city—much of which is below sea level—had long been known to be extremely vulnerable. The levees protecting much of the city were believed to be able to withstand a direct hit from a Category 3 hurricane, but they had never been seriously tested, as they would be soon. Meanwhile, coastal Mississippi and Alabama were lined up on the right-hand side of an enormously powerful hurricane track.Sunday, August 28, 2005: Landfall ImminentBy late Sunday night the hurricane was just offshore (Figure 12-4-1f). Those who had set out to evacuate were long gone. Those unable to leave were directed to shelters or hunkered down to take their chances at home. That morning, winds had easily exceeded the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of 282 km/hr (175 mph). The hurricane had become as intense as Hurricane Camille, which devastated coastal Mississippi in 1969, and was even larger (Figure 12-4-3). Katrina’s minimum air pressure of 902 mb was the fourth lowest ever observed for an Atlantic storm up to that time.FIGURE 12-4-1 Katrina Forecasts and Actual Positions. Maps (a) through (f) represent a four-day sequence from August 24 to August 28. The position and forecasted movements of Hurricane Katrina at various timss The area in white shows the range of possible locations forecast by the National Hurricane Center at the times shown....FIGURE 12-4-3 Katrina Approaches the Louisiana Coast. Radar image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached the Louisiana coast. This is shown as a movie in the book’s online resources....FIGURE 12-4-2 Katrina Approaches Miami. Radar image of Hurricane Katrina as it approached Miami. This is shown as a movie in the book’s online resources....Monday, August 29, 2005: LandfallHurricane Katrina made landfall early Monday morning. Coastal Louisiana was battered first as a huge storm surge overtook the area. Though the storm had weakened enough to be a strong Category 4, everybody knew that a historic disaster was occurring. The eye tracked just to the northeast of New Orleans, putting the city on the less-threatening “left side” of the storm. This initially gave the false impression that the city had narrowly escaped a disaster. This, of course, proved entirely incorrect. As New Orleans was subjected to wind speeds on the order of 160 km/hr (100 mph), Lake Pontchartrain waters rose along the levees, which were unable to hold them back. Eighty percent of the city came underwater (Figure 12-4-4).In addition to the flooding in and near New Orleans, a huge storm surge and heavy winds devastated much of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, helping to make Katrina one of the major natural disasters in U.S. history.FIGURE 12-4-4 Katrina. Downtown New Orleans under water....Why was flooding so severe in New Orleans despite the fact that the right side of the storm made landfall east of the city? Get solution
